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This is probably the match to determine which team will definitely be relegated, while the other is still "up in the air". The reason for this is that both teams are sinking at the bottom of the Serie A 2022/23 standings, with a significant gap to the nearest relegation position.
Objectively evaluating many aspects, Sampdoria's chance of survival is slightly better than Cremonese's. In addition to being two points ahead of Cremonese, the team from Genoa has been present in Italy's top league for over 10 years, while Cremonese has just returned to Serie A after 30 years of striving.
The difference in experience and resilience was somewhat reflected in the first leg match back in October last year, when Sampdoria won 1-0 despite being given a 1/4 ball handicap. At that time, the position of both teams was not much different from now (both were in the relegation zone).
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In the upcoming rematch, Sampdoria will be given a 1/4 ball handicap, which is quite reasonable odds. In the last two matches where they were favored at home in the national league (both in March 2023), Coach Stankovic's team did not lose (won 1). However, Cremonese is not so weak when playing away from home in Serie A 2022/23.
Evidence: Although the Lombardy club has not won any matches in terms of specialty, they have drawn half of their matches (7/14). Due to being always the underdog, Cremonese is currently ranked 4th in the league in terms of winning handicap on away matches (8/14 matches).
However, despite this, the 1/4 ball handicap for Sampdoria is still the choice for those who like to take risks, because in similar "reverse finals", the main handicap is usually a Draw-win-lose.
Analysis of the Sampdoria vs Cremonese match with a 2 1/4 goal handicap:
Despite being the lowest-scoring team in Serie A 2022/23 with only 16 goals in 28 matches, Sampdoria has scored five of those goals in their last three games. In other words, Sampdoria seems to be taking more risks when pushed against a wall. Meanwhile, Cremonese has shown strong resistance when conceding, as they also crave points. This is evident as they have failed to score in only 2 out of their last 7 matches in the league. If both teams score (which is highly likely), the match could see at least 3 goals. Therefore, the pick is Over 2 1/4.
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